Gold Hits Record High; Offshore RMB Soars
During the week (September 16th to September 22nd), after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the prices of commodities generally rose due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with gold reaching a historical high and non-ferrous metals mostly strengthening, with alumina leading the gains; the black series first fell and then rose.
Looking specifically at the domestic futures market, in the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 4.17% for the week, and crude oil rose by 1.85%; in the black series, iron ore fell by 2.02% for the week, and coking coal rose by 0.39%; in the base metals sector, lithium carbonate fell by 2.90% for the week, Shanghai nickel rose by 1.00%, Shanghai zinc rose by 1.43%, and Shanghai copper rose by 2.54%; in the agricultural products sector, palm oil rose by 5.33% for the week, eggs rose by 2.31%, and live pigs fell by 0.08%.
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Hotspot 1: The market supply and demand pattern has changed, and the decline in iron ore has not stopped.
On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, iron ore futures once again fluctuated downwards, and as of the afternoon closing, the main contract of iron ore futures fell by 4.12%.
At the same time, the futures price of iron ore in Singapore fell to a new low since November 2022.
Industry insiders analyzed that this year's supply and demand pattern has changed, and the futures and spot prices of iron ore have all fallen to varying degrees.
Cheng Peng, an iron ore researcher at Zhonggang Futures, told reporters that recently, the demand for steel used in construction materials has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and the demand for steel has improved marginally.
The negative feedback of the industrial chain caused by insufficient domestic demand and declining exports, as well as the pressure of old standard rebar steel inventory, has weakened.
The steel mills have significantly reduced production, and the weak demand has achieved a dynamic balance, with low steel inventory pressure.
At the same time, after a significant adjustment in steel prices, there is a certain degree of release of downward pressure, and the rebound in finished product prices has driven the price of iron ore upwards.
However, the domestic real estate market has not yet stabilized, and the hedging effect of infrastructure and manufacturing demand is poor, with the overall price of the black series showing a spiral downward trend.
The center of gravity of iron ore futures and spot prices has continued to move down with the steel prices under the pattern of continued high supply of foreign mines, declining domestic demand, and increasing inventory.
The futures and spot prices of iron ore have fallen for five consecutive months, and the decline continued to widen in September.
As of September 18th, the closing price of the main contract 2501 of iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 675.0 yuan/ton, down 79.0 yuan/ton from the end of August, a decline of 10.5%; the transaction price of Rizhao Port Pb powder spot (wet ton) was 681 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the end of August, a decline of 8.7%.
"After entering September, the terminal finished product demand has rebounded seasonally, and the plate and other small inventory reductions correspond to a slight stabilization of the overall black trend.
However, due to the high absolute inventory of iron ore and the clear expectation of long-term shipping volume increase, the overall increase is relatively weak."
Xu Huimin, an iron ore researcher at Dongzheng Futures, introduced that the global shipping volume has not seen a significant decline.
Data from relevant institutions shows that the latest global iron ore shipping volume continues to set a new high for the same period.
After Brazil's volume surge at the beginning of September, the shipping volume from Australia has also increased since the middle of the month.
Under the long-term pessimistic expectation, the intention of the mines to actively ship to maintain volume without maintaining the price is becoming more and more clear.
According to the current shipping volume, if domestic demand continues to decline at the rate since August, it is expected that the port inventory of iron ore will increase to more than 175 million tons by the end of the year.
Under the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, the probability of spot liquidity risk caused by future port capacity is increasing.
Cheng Peng introduced that the current iron ore maintains a loose supply and demand pattern, with low demand from steel mills, high supply from foreign mines, continuous accumulation of ore port inventory, and price pressure operation.
Data from relevant institutions shows that as of September 13th, the daily average output of pig iron from 247 steel enterprises in the country was 2.2338 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 244,600 tons, a decline of 9.9%, and at the lowest position in the same period in the past six years.
The profit level of steel mills is low, and the increase in terminal demand is insufficient, and it is expected that the space for the rebound of iron ore demand is very limited.
The supply of foreign mines remains high, and the price has not formed a negative impact on the supply of foreign mines.
Since June, the price of iron ore has been significantly weaker than the same period last year, and the monthly average value of the Platts 62% index in August was 16.0% lower than in May, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, but the global shipping volume and the shipping volume of high-cost non-mainstream mines have remained high and higher than the same period last year.
As of September 15th, the total global iron ore shipping volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year, and the shipping volume of non-Australian and Brazilian regions increased by 6.2% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that this year, the port inventory of iron ore has continued to accumulate, suppressing the price of iron ore.
The latest data shows that the inventory of the 45 ports in the country has been maintained at more than 150 million tons for 9 consecutive weeks and is at a historical high for the same period.
As of September 13th, the inventory of the 45 ports in the country was 153.8354 million tons, an increase of 35.1779 million tons year-on-year.
Looking at the port inventory structure, this year, under the background of the pressure of steel mill profits, there is a tendency to purchase cost-effective medium and low-grade iron ore, and there is no structural contradiction in the port inventory.
In the sample of 15 ports in the country, the total of Newman powder + Mack powder + Jinbu powder of medium and low-grade ore is 9.928 million tons, an increase of 44.43% year-on-year, and the spot resources of iron ore at the port are relatively sufficient.
It is reported that the current steel mills are cautious about resumption of production and raw material procurement.
Although the profits of steel mills have recovered slightly in the past two weeks, due to price fluctuations and general expectations for long-term orders, the overall pace of resumption is cautious.
According to statistics, the resumption of steel mills in the next 1-2 weeks is only about 10,000 tons per week.
Under the huge inventory of the port, steel mills are also cautious about procurement before the holiday, and the overall replenishment strength is average.
Regarding the future of iron ore, Xu Huimin believes that the improvement of seasonal inventory of finished products and the cautious resumption of steel mills support the internal strength of black goods in the finished product end rather than iron ore.
Considering that the absolute inventory of iron ore is still high, coupled with the market's pessimistic attitude towards long-term demand, the strength of iron ore to follow the rebound is weak, and the profit on the plate is expected to continue to differentiate.
"In the medium term, the supply and demand relationship of iron ore will transform from the current stage of balance to a situation where supply exceeds demand, and there is still room for the price of iron ore to fall."
Cheng Peng said.
Hotspot 2: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut opens up new space, and the price of spot gold has set a new historical record.
In the early morning of September 19th Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in interest rates in September, reducing the benchmark interest rate to 4.75%-5.00%, officially starting this round of the interest rate cut cycle.
The interest rate cut cycle has boosted the demand for gold, and recently the international gold price has risen again.
As of September 20th, the highest quote of London gold was $2607.03 per ounce, setting a new historical record.
The highest quote of COMEX gold was $2625.30 per ounce, approaching the previous high.
Looking at the long term, the gold price has accelerated since 2023, with a cumulative increase of 13.16% in London gold in 2023, and a cumulative increase of more than 26% since 2024.
As a non-interest-bearing asset, the attractiveness of gold largely depends on the yield of US dollar assets.
When the yield of US dollar assets decreases, the value of gold allocation becomes more prominent.
Debon Securities Research pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is the beginning of a change in US monetary policy.
With the implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the gold price may converge towards $2600.
However, from the market performance, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was implemented, the price of London gold once touched $2600 per ounce and then quickly fell back, and recently rebounded and set a new historical record.
Debon Securities estimates that with this interest rate cut, if there are no new catalysts, the gold price will fluctuate around $2600 per ounce in the short term.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the market has started trading the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which was then continuously postponed, and now the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the magnitude of the cut exceeds market expectations.
Fangzheng Securities believes that the current level of inflation continues to fall, and the labor market is showing fatigue, both of which support the Federal Reserve's decision to start the interest rate cut.
The September Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be the node for the interest rate cut to be implemented, and the gold price is expected to maintain a high operation state with the downward trend of the actual interest rate in the United States.
According to Huan'an Fund Research, the performance of gold prices is mainly affected by three factors.
The first is the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
In the interest rate cut cycle, the market expects that the actual interest rate in the United States is expected to start a downward trend, and the performance of gold is relatively good.
The second is that under the background of the high debt scale and deficit in the United States, the international financial system shows a trend of "de-dollarization," that is, central banks around the world reduce the weight of US dollar assets, and the net demand for gold purchases is higher than expected, making the performance of gold better than US bonds in the same period.
The third is the continuation of geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, which are still spreading locally.
According to the World Gold Council, the focus in the demand items of gold in 2023 and the first half of 2024 is still the continuation of central bank purchases.
Central banks in the world purchased a net of 1037 tons of gold in 2023, reaching the second-highest position in history, only 45 tons less than in 2022; in the first half of 2024, they purchased 483 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the total demand for gold in the world is strong.
The latest data from the World Gold Council shows that in July 2024, central banks purchased a net of 37 tons of gold, an increase of 206% from the previous month, the highest monthly increase since January of this year.
The World Gold Council believes that the factors for the sharp rise in gold prices this year may have a certain impact on the demand for gold from central banks, but the long-term net purchase trend still continues.
Huan'an Fund stated that the difficulty and cost of gold mining are increasing, and a large amount of global proven reserves have been mined, and gold itself has scarcity.
The demand for gold comes not only from central bank purchases but also from the increase in allocation plates.
Although the rise in gold prices may suppress gold jewelry consumption, the demand for allocation plates is increasing.
News 1: What is the impact of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years on the "money bag"?
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has become the most concerned topic in the market that day.
From the financial market to ordinary people, they are all studying or understanding its impact.
The reason is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is directly related to various assets around the world, and this is the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in four years, opening a new trend channel, which may have an impact on the market and assets for a relatively long period in the future.A professional decision in a foreign land, an event so "distant," what kind of relationship does it have with the ordinary people deep in the Chinese market?
How will it affect everyone's financial management, investment, consumption, and so on?
At about 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 19th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.75% to 5%, that is, a cut of 50 basis points.
This is the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve since 2020, in 4 years.
The United States officially started the interest rate cut wave, indicating the arrival of the era of global monetary easing, which may promote a revaluation of global asset prices.
After the interest rate cut was announced, both the U.S. stock market and international gold prices showed a trend of rising and falling.
The main contract of New York gold once touched a high of $2,627.2 per ounce, but quickly fell back.
The Dow Jones Index and the S&P 500 Index also once rose, but then fell back.
After the interest rate cut cycle starts, it is often accompanied by a weakening of the US dollar.
In fact, under the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index has clearly weakened since July.
On the first day after the interest rate cut, the US dollar index fell by 0.35% on September 19th.
The weakening of the US dollar index means that the depreciation pressure of other non-US dollar currencies, including the renminbi, has been reduced.
If the renminbi continues to appreciate, the impact on ordinary people is naturally very direct.
Exchanging renminbi for US dollars will result in exchange losses.
For example, under the trend of the US dollar appreciation before, many ordinary people were keen to exchange their savings for US dollars to hold.
Under the trend of the US dollar weakening, this necessity needs to be thought deeply.
However, for investors who have US dollars in hand, or reserve US dollars because of future overseas consumption, investment plans, etc., such as children studying abroad, overseas travel, international trade, etc., you can choose a longer term US dollar deposit to lock in the current higher deposit interest rate.
In addition, in the past two years, US dollar financial management has been "very fragrant."
The main reason behind it is that since 2022, a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have rapidly raised the benchmark interest rate of US dollar assets, and the yield of US dollar financial products has also risen accordingly.
As of the end of June, the average annualized return on US dollar financial products this year has reached 4.72%.
At the same time, under the background of domestic low interest rates, the yield of financial products has been falling all the way, and there are very few RMB financial products that can reach a 4% yield.
So what is the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on US dollar financial management?
First, the interest rate cut directly leads to a decrease in US dollar deposit interest rates, and the yield of US dollar financial products will also be affected.
However, it is also necessary to consider the renminbi exchange rate.
If the renminbi appreciation trend mentioned above occurs, then the actual yield of US dollar financial products may be offset by exchange rate changes.
On September 19th, the day after the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut, most countries' currencies welcomed an increase, and the Tonghuashun market software showed that 13 out of 16 currencies appreciated against the US dollar.
The renminbi has also ushered in a big increase.
Wind data shows that at 14:48 on the 19th, the onshore US dollar against the renminbi exchange rate was reported at 7.0610, a big increase of 283 basis points compared to the previous trading day.
For the vast majority of ordinary people, what they hold in their hands and pay more attention to is still various RMB assets.
So what is the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on these RMB assets - financial management, stocks, funds, real estate, etc.?
First, a basic logic is that the yield of RMB assets is mainly determined by the interest rate of the RMB, so this question is essentially, how will the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut affect the interest rate of the RMB?
In fact, before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this time, the People's Bank of China had already started the interest rate cut cycle, but was limited by factors such as the large interest rate difference between China and the United States and the pressure of exchange rates.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle this time means that the domestic interest rate cut space is expected to be further opened up.
That is, the interest rates of various RMB assets may further decline, and deposit and loan interest rates are expected to further decline.
Haitong Securities research report statistics found that from the data of the three interest rate cut cycles in 2007, 2019, and 2020, the probability of the decline of Chinese bond rates within one month after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is relatively high, but the subsequent trend is uncertain.
This year, the bond market has already taken a bull market, and as of September 18th, the China Bond Index has risen by 7.97% in the past year, and has risen by 6.38% this year.
If domestic interest rates continue to decline, then the bond market is expected to benefit.
If the bond market continues to rise, then bond funds and fixed income financial products that mainly invest in bonds are expected to benefit.
However, after the interest rate cut, the overall decline in asset yields, and the yield level of bond funds and fixed income financial products that mainly hold to maturity may also decline accordingly.
Speaking of the stock market and the real estate market that everyone generally cares about.
Regardless of other factors, just from the news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut itself, it is also good news for the domestic stock market and real estate market.
The reason is the same.
If the People's Bank of China's interest rate cut space is further opened up under the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, then the mortgage loan interest rate is expected to further decline, and the pressure on homebuyers to repay their loans will continue to be reduced, and real estate companies will benefit from the decline in financing costs.
The central bank previously mentioned that it will start to introduce some incremental policy measures to further reduce the financing and credit costs of enterprises and residents.
After the US dollar starts the interest rate cut cycle, the interest rate difference between China and the United States is expected to narrow, and the depreciation pressure of the renminbi is expected to ease or even appreciate, and the attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase, including domestic real estate and stocks and other RMB assets are also expected to perform better.
However, it is worth pointing out that market research institutions generally believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this round belongs to a preemptive interest rate cut (the purpose of the interest rate cut is to prevent economic recession).
The pace of preemptive interest rate cuts may be advanced, and the cycle may switch earlier.
For example, before the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut this time, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds had already declined in advance.
Wind data shows that the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has declined from 4.704% on April 25th to 3.699% on September 19th.
According to the statistics of Xingye Global Fund, since 1990, A shares and Hong Kong stocks have experienced 6 times of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, among which "preemptive interest rate cuts" have occurred three times (1995-1996, 1998, 2019).
In the three "preemptive interest rate cuts," the trends of A shares and Hong Kong stocks are not the same.
Among them, the overall trend of the Hong Kong stock market index is upward, and A shares have not shown a consistent upward or downward trend in the three "preemptive interest rate cut" cycles.
Buying gold is also a hot trend in the financial market in recent years.
For those who have already bought a lot of gold or plan to buy gold, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is good news.
The logic behind it is that after the interest rate cut cycle starts, it is usually the US dollar that weakens.
If the US dollar weakens, gold is expected to continue to strengthen.
There is a certain "negative correlation" between gold and the US dollar.
In the international market, the price of gold is priced in US dollars.
If the US dollar weakens during the interest rate cut cycle, the price of gold priced in US dollars is expected to rise.
In addition, gold is "naturally money," and both the US dollar and gold have a certain risk resistance attribute.
When the US dollar trend is weak, investors are more inclined to use gold to diversify risks.
However, in the short term, the gold price has fully reflected the expectation of the September interest rate cut, and short-term fluctuations may increase.
Zhongou Fund believes that in general, in preemptive interest rate cuts, the further downward space of US bonds may be relatively limited, and US stocks and the US dollar are often volatile and strong, and gold may be under pressure to further rise.
News two: Offshore RMB continues to rise On September 20th, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose by more than 300 points during the day, once breaking through 7.04, and the highest was reported at 7.0385.
It is worth noting that the offshore RMB reported at the end of the New York market yesterday was 7.0710, appreciating by 242 basis points compared to the previous trading day.
Today (September 20th), the RMB against the US dollar middle rate reported at 7.0644, appreciating by 339 basis points compared to the previous day, and a total of 386 basis points this week.
According to the Daily Economic News report on the 19th, Tang Yao, an associate professor of the Department of Applied Economics at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, said that the main driver of the short-term sharp appreciation of the RMB is the overall weakening of the US dollar.
The latest interest rate cut action of the Federal Reserve is more dovish, exceeding the expectations of some people, and the latest forecast for the end-of-year interest rate is also 0.7% lower than the previous forecast.
These factors combined have led to a significant weakening of the US dollar in the short term.
Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, pointed out that in terms of the RMB exchange rate, it is mainly affected by two factors at present: one is the trend of the US dollar, which will cause the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar to appreciate or depreciate passively; the other is the trend of domestic macroeconomics, which determines the internal appreciation or depreciation momentum of the RMB.
Regarding the logic of RMB appreciation, Shao Xiang, a senior macro analyst at Minsheng Securities, said that from the external factors, the Federal Reserve officially cut interest rates and the amount reached 50BP, exceeding the expectations of many people.
From the internal factors, facing the overseas unexpected easing, the market also holds higher expectations for domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts.
As monetary conditions further improve, the domestic economic trend is also expected to stabilize and rebound, which also supports the further appreciation of the RMB.
Overall, under the combined action of changes in the external environment and domestic economic expectations, the appreciation space of the RMB has been opened up.
A research report from CITIC Securities on the 20th pointed out that the appreciation of the RMB since August has been mainly driven by external factors.
From August 1st to September 18th, the US dollar index fell by 3.37%, reflecting the recent weakening of the US economic fundamentals and the warming of interest rate cut expectations.
During the same period, the onshore RMB and offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar by 2.25% and 2.21% respectively, and the appreciation of the RMB was less than the decline of the US dollar index.
The institution expects that in the future, the concentrated settlement of export enterprises may increase short-term exchange rate fluctuations, and the RMB exchange rate may approach 7.0.
However, CITIC Securities expects that the probability of the RMB exchange rate breaking through 7.0 this year is not high.
First, although the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this time is large, the subsequent path is flexible and steady.
Second, the domestic economy still has a problem of insufficient effective demand in the short term.
Third, the institution believes that the People's Bank of China wants to maintain exchange rate stability, and rapid appreciation and rapid depreciation may both pose certain risks.It is worth noting that Wang Qing stated that if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace is faster than the market expects, the US dollar index could fall below 100, and the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar will move towards 7.0, and it is not ruled out that it could return to the 6s in the short term.
Conversely, if the pace of the rate cut is slower, the US dollar index fluctuation is limited, and the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar will remain basically stable.
Wang Qing further stated that domestically, with the effects of stable growth policies becoming apparent, new quality productivity continues to develop rapidly, and the domestic GDP growth rate will maintain a level around 5.0%.
This will provide internal support for the renminbi exchange rate.
According to his judgment, in the short term, the renminbi is expected to continue the strong performance since July.
However, before the domestic real estate market stabilizes and warms up, the possibility of the renminbi appreciating significantly and continuously is also not great.
Wang Qing finally pointed out that overall, the next step for the renminbi will maintain a pattern of inverse fluctuation with the US dollar, and the possibility of a significant rise and fall away from the US dollar trend is very small.
This also means that in the future, "maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level" is not to stick to a certain exchange rate point, but to focus on preventing the renminbi from rising and falling sharply away from the US dollar trend.
This is of great significance for the current prevention and control of external risks.
In other words, whether the renminbi against the US dollar can return to the 6s in the future will be mainly determined by the trend of the US dollar index.
Energy and chemical sector crude oil: On the supply side, last week's hurricane weather affected the crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, which has not yet fully recovered, coupled with the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the supply side has a certain support for oil prices.
On the demand side, both OPEC and IEA lowered their demand growth forecasts this week, global demand is weak, China's economic data in August did not meet expectations, the US summer consumption peak season has passed, and the demand side improvement is not obvious.
On the inventory side, crude oil inventory decreased last week.
In addition, the Fed's rate cut exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about the demand outlook.
Overall, crude oil prices lack the driving force for continuous rise, and it is expected that the short term will still maintain a low-level shock trend.
Black series sector iron ore: On the supply side, the shipment of foreign mines has rebounded significantly, and it is expected that the arrival of goods will continue to rebound later; on the demand side, the output of iron water continues to increase, and the progress of steel mills is slow.
It is expected that the subsequent resumption of production will continue, and the demand for iron ore will rebound; on the inventory side, the inventory of 45 ports has decreased again, and the inventory of steel mills has turned to decrease, mainly purchasing on demand, and the port inventory sales ratio has accumulated passively.
Overall, the dynamic supply and demand contradiction is not obvious.
In the later period, the focus of the basic side is on the extent of the improvement of the demand for finished products, the resumption of production of steel mills, and the introduction and implementation of policies.
Non-ferrous metals sector Shanghai lead: This week, the main futures price of Shanghai lead fluctuated mainly.
On the macro front, at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.75% to 5.00%, exceeding market expectations.
This is the first time since March 2020 that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, indicating that monetary policy has shifted from a tightening phase to an easing phase, and the macro short-term boost has boosted the sentiment of the non-ferrous metal sector, and lead prices have stopped falling.
On the basic side, many recycled lead smelters resumed production as scheduled, and the output increase this week is expected to rebound significantly, and during the holiday, lead smelting enterprises basically maintained normal production except for maintenance, while most lead-acid battery enterprises took a holiday of 1-3 days, and lead inventory accumulated.
In the spot market, according to SMM: this week, Shanghai lead showed a wide range of fluctuations, and transactions had regional differences, with the South China market improving relatively, and downstream enterprises maintaining a state of purchasing on demand.
Agricultural products pig: Overall, affected by seasonal consumption, the growth of consumption in the week before the festival, although weaker than previous years, still exceeded market expectations, and the slaughter start-up rate and white strip sales data both increased rapidly, but the pace of delivery also accelerated significantly.
After the concentrated delivery this week, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the average weight of the delivery next week.
If there is not much change, it reflects that the supply of pigs is sufficient, and there is still room for future prices to weaken.
Affected by the growth of consumption before the festival, consumption will gradually weaken next week, and the consumption during the National Day will also be affected and the growth will be limited.
In the short term, pig prices will remain weak, and in the long term, the growth of consumption is not as fast as the growth of supply.
It is expected that pig prices will also fluctuate and be weak in the long term.
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