US Recession Risks Rise: Goldman 41%, Morgan 31%.
Abstract: As global instability escalates, the world needs a super peacekeeper to maintain order.
Main Body: Massive liquidity injection!
Today, the central bank has a net injection of 369.2 billion yuan for the second consecutive day.
On August 14th, the People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repo operation of 369.2 billion yuan for a period of 7 days, with the winning interest rate remaining at 1.7%.
Since there were no reverse repos maturing today, the net injection was 369.2 billion yuan.
On August 13th, the People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repo operation of 385.7 billion yuan for a period of 7 days, with the winning interest rate at 1.7%, consistent with the previous rate.
On that day, 620 million yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 38.508 billion yuan.
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The central bank has increased net injections mainly due to the release of important financial data overnight.
M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year.
At the end of July, the balance of narrow money (M1) was 63.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%.
In June, May, and April, it decreased by 5%, 4.2%, and 1.4% year-on-year, respectively.
M1 has been negative for four consecutive months in July, and the main component of China's M1 is demand deposits of units.
Corporate demand deposits are still being transformed into financial management.
In simple terms, companies are short of money.
They urgently need to replenish their liquidity, which also indicates that, following this trend, the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the near future is increasing.
Overnight blockbuster!
The central bank releases a review on August 13th, the People's Bank of China released the latest financial data.
A quick look at the data shows that at the end of July, the balance of all RMB loans was 251.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 303.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.
At the end of July, the stock of social financing was 395.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%.
From January to July, the increase in social financing scale was 18.87 trillion yuan, 3.22 trillion yuan less than the same period last year.
The social financing scale has been growing steadily.
In terms of M2, the data shows that at the end of July 2024, the balance of broad money (M2) was 303.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month.
The balance of narrow money (M1) was 63.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%.
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month!
New Zealand cuts interest rates in advance.
Today's news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%, with expectations of remaining unchanged.
The New Zealand dollar/dollar fell sharply in the short term.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects that by the middle of 2025, the average cash rate will fall by 101 basis points.
At present, it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, and as a result, central banks around the world are racing to cut interest rates first.
At the same time, the market expects that in 2025, a global wave of interest rate cuts is expected to be driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Whether there will be a market at that time depends on luck.
The regular market will be a bit earlier.
Interest rate cut next month!
The probability of a U.S. recession is increasing.
Goldman Sachs: 41%, Morgan: 31%.
The magic rule is that when the United States is in a recession, the world falls.
This is the role of the United States as the world's economic hegemon, why it competes for the first place, because it benefits more from both good and bad news.
The blow is on your body, but the pain is in my heart.
According to models from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, the possibility of a U.S. economic recession has increased significantly.
These conclusions are drawn from signals in the U.S. bond market and the performance of stocks sensitive to the business cycle.
Goldman Sachs said that the stock and bond markets estimate the probability of a U.S. economic recession at 41%, up from 29% in April.
JPMorgan Chase's model also shows that due to the repricing of U.S. Treasury bonds, the possibility of a U.S. economic recession has risen from 20% at the end of March to 31%.
The reason for the new round of stock market increases recently is that the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at a more aggressive pace.
In other words, the more the United States is in recession, the more there is an expectation of favorable policies being introduced, which in turn drives the rise of growth stocks.
Technology leaders benefit from interest rate cuts, and as a result, their stock prices rise.
Learn to invest in stocks from Norway and Warren Buffett.
Copying the world's homework and looking at the history of the world will help everyone learn the truth of stock selection better.
Look at the world's largest sovereign fund, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, which released its holdings data at the end of June.
The top three holdings are Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
Among the top 10 holdings, Meta, Novo Nordisk, and ASML Holdings were reduced.
That is to say, the Norwegian Sovereign Fund, like Warren Buffett, holds stocks for a long time, but it holds the leaders in the long term, and the stock market it chooses is also a world leader.
So ordinary people don't think that long-term is good, it will fall.
Only 10% of the U.S. stock market's big rise in the past 10 years is positive income.
The rest are either delisted or failed.
New energy vehicles are good news.
The State Council issued opinions on accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.
The opinions propose to promote low-carbon transportation tools.
Vigorously promote new energy vehicles and promote the electrification of urban public service vehicles.
Promote the use of clean power by ships, aircraft, and non-road mobile machinery, accelerate the elimination of old transportation tools, promote zero-emission freight, strengthen the research and application of sustainable aviation fuel, and encourage the research, production, and application of net-zero emission marine fuel.
By 2030, the carbon emission intensity of operating transportation tools per unit of turnover will be reduced by about 9.5% compared to 2020.
By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles.
Overall, leaders eat everything, and those who are not leaders will have big trouble.
However, compared with domestic cars, foreign car companies and joint ventures face the greatest pressure.
At present, the development of domestic new energy vehicles is far ahead.
And joint ventures, foreign car companies' new energy vehicle sales are far behind, even on the verge of collapse.
In the medium and long term, domestic new energy vehicles are expected to maintain a super leading advantage.
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