US Harvest; Vietnam May Decline 20 Years; $145 Trillion Exit
S&P Global updated data on September 17th showed that Vietnam's manufacturing PMI for August recorded 52.4, lower than July's 54.7.
Although new export orders have been growing for five consecutive months, the business confidence of Vietnamese manufacturing factories for the outlook in the next year has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since January.
Vietnam's economy, which is heavily reliant on exports, is feeling the pressure due to concerns about a global economic recession.
Adding to the woes, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs' quarterly labor market and employment report for 2024 released a week ago, the unemployment rate has increased compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year.
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The youth unemployment rate remains high, with about 1.4 million unemployed individuals who are neither working nor receiving education or training, accounting for 11% of the total youth population.
Unemployment rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, at 12.8% and 8.3% respectively.
This indicates that despite Vietnam's active reforms and impressive economic data in recent years, and its abundant young workforce, the country remains primarily focused on low-end manufacturing, particularly hindered by weak governance of small and medium-sized enterprises, insufficient infrastructure, and gaps in digital connectivity, highlighting the vulnerability of Vietnam's economy.
VnexPress, a Vietnamese media outlet, reported on September 17th that ongoing external and internal challenges continue to cast a shadow over Vietnam's economic growth prospects, especially with concerns about the high financing costs of the US dollar persisting for longer periods.
This includes spending cuts leading to reduced global demand, which could lead to a significant stagnation in Vietnam's economy, with the solidity of economic recovery still being a question.
Nguyen Dinh Cong, former director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, stated that it seems to be a tough period for Vietnam.
He warned that the Industrial Production Index (IIP) lacks stability, and the Purchasing Managers' Index has been hovering around 50, indicating signs of contraction, while the number of foreign enterprises exiting the Vietnamese market is also increasing.
According to statistics released by the Vietnam Business Registration Agency on September 16th, nearly 102,000 enterprises exited the Vietnamese market in the first two quarters of this year, a 21.5% increase compared to the same period last year.
Relatively, during the period from 2018 to 2022, one out of every four new companies exited the market.
However, from 2023 to August 2024, for every enterprise entering the market, two exited.
This indicates that under the background of weak domestic and international demand, the investment volume and new orders of new enterprises in Vietnam have plummeted, causing the new force of Vietnam's manufacturing industry to stall.
Additionally, due to concerns about non-performing credit, Vietnamese banks are tightening mortgage loans because of the decline in real estate, smartphone, and automobile production.
Meanwhile, private investment has not yet recovered to previous levels, and the main driver of the economy, the service industry, has lost momentum due to inflationary pressures.
Data shows that exports and manufacturing are the main drivers of Vietnam's economic growth.
Due to weak economic growth in the US and the EU, Vietnam's manufacturing exports face significant resistance, with these two major export markets accounting for about 42% of Vietnam's commodity exports.
In August, Vietnam's export value was $2.51 billion, a 21.5% decrease from the previous month.
At the same time, in recent years, the US trade deficit with Vietnam has expanded significantly, from $55.8 billion in 2019 to $118.9 billion in 2023.
According to data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, since the fourth quarter of 2022, Vietnam's textile exports to the European and American markets have faced numerous difficulties, with export values continuing to decline by double digits.
In the 24 months up to August, Vietnam's commodity exports to the US decreased by 16.9% year-on-year.
Although exports of computers, electrical products, and components have seen a slight year-on-year increase for eight consecutive months, exports of mobile phones and components decreased by 23.4% year-on-year, and exports of textiles and garments also fell sharply by 19.3% year-on-year.
Truong, deputy head of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, stated that despite the continuous increase in orders in the garment industry, rising raw material costs, production costs, exchange rates, green requirements from major markets, and labor shortages still need to be approached with caution.
Moreover, the challenges faced by Vietnam's manufacturing industry have become more complex due to management chaos and power shortages leading to power supply interruptions.
From May to August this year, production in industrial parks in northern Vietnam was particularly affected, causing a large number of international manufacturing enterprises to shut down and withdraw from Vietnam.
For example, Vietnam has asked factories such as Foxconn to limit electricity to prevent power shortages in the coming months.
Last year, widespread power outages caused by heatwaves alone led to losses of up to $1.4 billion for many manufacturers in northern Vietnam.
This has sparked concerns about Vietnam's prospects as an emerging manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia.
For instance, Intel's recent decision to abandon plans to expand its factory in Vietnam is the latest example.
According to the latest documents disclosed by Vietnam's Ministry of Investment on September 3rd, the US chip giant Intel had planned to invest $3.3 billion in Vietnam but ultimately moved the project to Poland.
In addition, South Korean company LG also canceled its battery investment project in Vietnam, and Austrian semiconductor manufacturer AMS decided to invest in Malaysia instead of Vietnam.
The Vietnamese investment department stated in documents released in early September: "Recently, several large multinational companies from the US, Japan, South Korea, and Europe came to Vietnam to look for investment opportunities, but most of them later decided to turn to other countries because Vietnam lacks investment support regulations and incentives."
This will accelerate the process under the expectation that the US will start a rate-cutting cycle, using the tidal effect of different monetary cycles to continuously harvest Vietnam's economy, as most of the profits of Vietnam's manufacturing industry have always been in the hands of European and American companies, which is also one of the reasons why a large number of wise investors have withdrawn from the Vietnamese market in advance.
For example, in recent years, the short-term debt ratio of Vietnam's real estate industry has soared rapidly, reaching 21%, prompting a large amount of international capital to withdraw from the market.
These headwinds facing Vietnam's economy will have a direct negative impact on Vietnam's plans to become a world factory and financial markets, with panic selling prevailing in the market as Vietnam's large-cap stocks and currency continue to fall.
In this regard, JPMorgan Chase warned in a report released on September 17th that economies hoping that US rate cuts will further weaken the strong dollar and enhance their own currencies may be disappointed.
JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the dollar has strengthened after the first rate cut in three of the past four cycles, and history may repeat itself, with this trend likely to continue.
The report pointed out that Vietnam's recent fiscal and monetary policies are similar to those of the 1980s, which may lead to new financial shocks and a broad repricing of real estate, bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments for Vietnam.
Currently, Vietnam has been listed by international institutions as one of the Southeast Asian countries that need to consolidate their finances the most.
Based on this, some believe that Vietnam's current situation is more like the eager Indian economy, with the credit risk exposure of Vietnamese companies becoming increasingly apparent.
The Economist stated that Vietnam's impressive economic growth may be becoming a victim of being harvested by the US.
In fact, the financial team has noticed that in recent years, Vietnam has been making every effort to start the "global manufacturing factory" plan, sparing no effort to absorb capital, debt, technology, manufacturing enterprises, and even talents from the US and other related resources, making Vietnam's economy seem like an economic black hole all of a sudden.
However, the current situation of the dollar flowing back and even if the US cuts interest rates, the dollar rate will remain high, the predicament of raw materials and commodity supply chains, and other factors may have a far-reaching impact on Vietnam's economic growth pace, especially on the financial market, and will have a negative impact on many Vietnamese companies.
Especially under the multiple economic pressures of high inflation, high energy fuel prices, and high domestic manufacturing costs in the US, the US is trying to shift its own debt and inflation risks, especially when there is still at least more than 100 trillion yen of carry trade transactions to be closed, which will bring continuous turmoil to the US financial market.
Previously, the tens of trillions of dollars of "deep-sea bombs" that the US dropped on Vietnam may detonate in advance, starting the process of harvesting Vietnam's economy and financial debt market black holes.
According to the explanation in the report published by the US financial research institution ZeroHedge on September 17th, the core crux of why Vietnam's economy is particularly susceptible to external environmental impacts is that it is trapped in the black hole of dollar debt, and it wants to make a profit exchange with the Wall Street group.
In this regard, analysts believe that Vietnam's slow economic system transformation and incomplete system, supported by low-end manufacturing and agriculture, do not have much added value, making Vietnam's economy very vulnerable when dealing with changes in the external environment, almost always experiencing strong fluctuations in events such as oil prices, dollar tidal effects, or currency devaluation.
In the era of information intelligence, the sustainability of Vietnam's manufacturing model is not strong, and it cannot become the next world factory, which will have a negative impact on many foreign companies investing in Vietnam.
This indicates that some of the manufacturing supply chains that have shifted from the Chinese market to Vietnam have obtained a sales market far lower than expected, such as Foxconn, which has recently withdrawn a large amount of equipment and molds from Vietnam and returned to China.
Due to issues such as Vietnam's power shortage and insufficient infrastructure, it has decided to reduce its industrial capacity in Vietnam and deepen cooperation with the Chinese market.
Even some Vietnamese textile factories have not received new orders for several months.
This has also led some factories, including Foxconn, to quietly return to China again, because these factories that have invested in Vietnam have finally realized that the labor quality is higher, the excellent technical proficiency, and the most efficient workers are in China, and at the same time, China's manufacturing output is higher, and the consumption potential is greater.Not only that, but on September 16th, Ngo Tri Long, the former director of the Price Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam, also told the media that for Vietnam's economy, it's not just about the withdrawal of foreign manufacturers investing in Vietnam.
The biggest risk it faces is the ineffective growth policy, which leads Vietnam into a dollar debt trap.
These enterprises only pursue the quantity of investment, without focusing on investment efficiency and quality.
In response, the Oxford Economics Institute updated its report on September 17th, stating that against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's continuous harvesting of Vietnam and the deepening chaos of the current U.S. election campaign intensifying the dollar tide harvesting effect, Vietnam's economy is now struggling due to the decline in investment, which also leads to a significant amount of international capital continuously withdrawing from Vietnam's economy.
Overall, since the beginning of 2023 to the present, the total international capital investment in Vietnam has decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, including at least 1450 trillion Vietnamese dong of funds that have withdrawn from Vietnam's manufacturing industry, becoming a weathervane for Vietnam's economy losing the Asian supply chain.
At the same time, Vietnam is facing the risk of severe recession, and the miracle of Vietnam's economy may return to its original form, or it may decline for 20 years, especially in industries that heavily rely on exports.
According to data released by the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam on September 12th, the total inflow of foreign direct investment reported a decline of 17% in 2023 to date, with the total registered capital amounting to 54.2 billion U.S. dollars.
Specifically, 2,387 projects have obtained investment registration certificates, with a total registered capital of nearly 19.8 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 19.2% from last year.
In the first six months of this year, Vietnam's public investment only completed 38% of the annual target.
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